Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts to Advance Flood Preparedness: Statistical Applications and User Perspectives
Abstract
Disaster planning has historically allocated minimal effort and finances toward advanced
preparedness; however, evidence supports reduced vulnerability to flood events through
appropriate early actions, saving lives and money. Among other requirements, effective early
action systems necessitate the availability of high-quality forecasts to inform decision making.
Chapter 2 of this work evaluates the ability of statistical and physically based season-ahead
prediction models to appropriately trigger flood early preparedness actions for the flood-prone
Marañón River and Piura River in Peru. A tailored statistical streamflow forecast developed in
this work demonstrates superior performance to an operational forecast at both study locations.
Continued efforts should focus on applying this season-ahead prediction framework to additional
flood-prone locations where early actions may be warranted and current forecast capacity is
limited.
Chapter 3 leverages an online questionnaire to explore perceptions of probabilistic river forecasts
among county-level emergency managers in the Upper Midwest, specifically focusing on factors
affecting use of probabilistic river forecasts for flood preparedness. Forecast use is found to be
statistically significantly related to emergency management budget, availability of forecast
locations, trainings, frequency of flood preparedness, perceived degree of flood preparedness,
perceived value of forecasts, and forecast familiarity. Additionally, a multiple logistic regression
model predicts 68% of the variance in forecast use, identifying significant positive associations
with forecast familiarity and full-time employment status and a negative association with
communication with forecast providers. While results suggest forecasts provide value to
emergency managers, many respondents indicate further improvements are possible. Further
investigation into the forecast use-flood preparedness relationship is warranted.