Wisconsin’s Central Sands Hydroclimatology: Characterization, Forecasting, and Impacts on Real Estate
Abstract
Hydroclimatological variability often stresses resource and economic conditions locally and
globally. The Wisconsin Central Sands, a region in the upper Midwest, has many interests with
strong connections to local water resources and is used as a case study to explore capabilities of
seasonal forecasts and economic implications of interannual hydrologic conditions.
While seasonal climate forecasts have been posed as a means to anticipate hydroclimatological
variability, teleconnections with sea surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture transport, and
precipitation become damped and more difficult to model inland over longer distances, such as the
upper Midwest of the United States. Currently, dynamical models have exhibited limited
performance reproducing the physical processes associated with long distance, continental
atmospheric moisture transport. The capabilities of statistical data driven models to identify
preseason signals understood to be associated with the mechanisms of atmospheric moisture
transport are explored. Results indicate the primary mode of atmospheric moisture transport is
accurately captured, primarily during strong La Niña events, and the model produces modest
precipitation forecast skill, specifically with respect to forecasting drought conditions.
Negative economic impacts associated with drought and decreased residential property values
within the Wisconsin Central Sands are reported by local and regional journalists, but no known
formal analyses have been performed. Analyses performed with real estate transactions and
hydrologic data indicate non-lakefront residential real estate is relatively insensitive to interannual
changes in hydrologic conditions whereas a relatively strong positive relationship exists between
interannual changes in hydrologic conditions and lakefront real estate.