Forecasting US inflation : Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, or something else?
Date
2017-11Author
Kick, Dalton
Publisher
University of Wisconsin--Whitewater
Advisor(s)
Ahmed, Yamin
Guo, Nick
Ersal, Eylem
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
I utilize and compare several common inflation forecasting models, including traditional Phillips curve models and the New Keynesian Phillips curve, as well as several other time series models. I evaluate these models using RMSE over several forecast horizons, using three different measures of inflation: CPI inflation, PPI inflation, and GDP deflator inflation. I find that the theoretical Phillips curve models outperform other time series models, however, the performance is sensitive to the inflation measure used in estimation.
Subject
Inflation (Finance)--United States--Forecasting
Inflation (Finance)--United States--Mathematical models
Phillips curve
Permanent Link
http://digital.library.wisc.edu/1793/78471Description
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